Securitisation - The Future of the European and US market

Table of Contents for Securitisation - The Future of the European and US market

Securitisation - Table of Contents

1. Introduction

1.1 Re-engineering the tradition

1.2 The history and future of securitisation

1.3 Securitisation - a genus of structured finance

1.4 Adverse effects of securitisation

1.4.1 Dilution of banks role

1.4.2 Increased volatility of asset values

1.4.3 Decline in capital and profitability

1.4.4 Structured finance and the Enron debacle

1.5 Securitisation - simple concept/ complex process

1.6 Objective of report

2. What is securitisation?

2.1 Introduction

2.2 What is security?

2.3 ABS and MBS

2.4 Tim Nicolle

2.5 Vinod Kothari

2.6 Moodys Investment Services

2.6.1 Securitisation - a process of commoditisation

2.6.2 Securitisation - a process of integration and differentiation

2.6.3 Securitisation - a process of deconstruction of an entity

2.7 Business Week

2.7.1 Method of funding receivables - blend of "structured finance" and capital markets

2.7.1.1 Securitisation as a process of commoditisation

2.8 The application of securitisation

2.8.1 Securitisation of receivables

2.8.1.1 Transforming a claim on a third party as a marketable document

2.8.1.2 Originating an instrument based on the quality of the asset

2.8.2 Securitisation and credit derivatives

2.9 Chapter conclusion

3. The purpose of securitisation

3.1 Introduction

3.2 The evolution of securitisation

3.3 Financial claims often involve sizeable sums of money

3.4 Liquidity of investments most critical for smaller investors

3.5 Instruments are more comprehensible than financial transactions

3.6 Provides access to low-cost funding?

3.7 Securitisation transactions transfer credit risk?

3.8 Chapter conclusion

4. Structuring a securitisation arrangement

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Assets conducive to securitisation

4.2.1 Availability of information

4.2.2 Low cost of acquiring and distributing information to rating agencies and investors

4.2.3 Residential mortgages

4.2.4 Evolution of ABS market

4.2.5 When are securitisable assets conducive to securitisation?

4.2.5.1 Costs

4.2.5.2 Data-intensive process

4.2.5.2.1 Historical performance data

4.2.5.2.2 Due diligence

4.3 The common features of securitisation arrangements

Diagram 1. Securitisation template

4.3.1 Cash-flow

4.3.2 Security

4.3.3 Capacity

4.3.4 Independence from originator

4.3.5 Marketability

4.3.6 Merchantable quality

4.3.7 Wide distribution

4.3.8 Homogeneity

4.4 Parties to a securitisation

4.4.1 Introduction

4.4.2 The role of the issuer

4.4.3 The role of the servicer/ originator

4.4.4 The role of the sponsor

4.4.4.1 Separation of the assets from the Originator/Sponsor

4.4.5 The role of the trustee

4.4.6 The role of the Special Purpose Vehicle

4.4.6.7 Administration agreement

4.4.7 No SPV - Credit-linked notes

4.4.8 Swaps

4.4.8.1 Credit default swaps

4.4.8.2 Total return swaps

4.4.9 The role of the Issuers

4.4.9.1 Banks as issuers

4.4.9.1.1 Banks as issuers in Japan

4.4.9.1.2 Banks as issuers in Europe

4.4.9.1.3 Boosting bank fees

4.4.9.1.4 Boosting regulatory capital

4.4.9.1.5 Collateralised loan obligations (CLOs)

4.4.9.1.5.1 Cash flow transactions

4.4.9.1.5.2 Market value transactions

4.4.9.1.6 Collateralised bond obligations (CBOs)

4.4.9.1.7 BIS guidelines

4.4.9.2 The role of insurers

4.4.9.2.1 Catastrophe bond

4.4.9.2.2 Risk finance

4.4.9.3 Emerging market issuers

4.4.9.3.1 The local currency rating

4.4.9.3.2 The foreign currency rating

4.4.9.3.3 Future flow receivables versus existing assets

4.4.9.3.4 Collateralised debt obligations

4.4.10 The role of investors

4.4.10.1 The role of investors in the US

4.4.10.2 The role of investors in Europe

4.4.10.3 Increase in demand for ABS

4.4.11 The role of the lead underwriter

4.4.12 The role of the structuring team

4.4.13 The role of the legal team

4.4.14 The role of rating agencies

4.4.15 The role of the originator's accountants

4.4.16 The role of credit enhancement providers and their lawyers

4.4.17 The role of the standby servicer and their lawyers

4.4.18 The role of the clearing bank and its lawyers

4.4.19 The role of the banking facility providers and their lawyers

4.4.20 The role of hedging providers and their lawyers

4.4.21 The role of paying agents, agent banks, common depositary etc.

4.4.22 The role of the printer!

4.5 Chapter conclusion

5. Benefits of securitisation

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Off balance sheet privileges

5.3 Transfer of risk and limited/non recourse to the originating company or investor

5.4 Improves liquidity

5.4.1 Residential mortgage sector - Creation of a highly liquid secondary mortgage market

5.4.2 Auto Asset- Backed Security System

5.4.2.1 GMAC

5.4.2.2 Chrysler Financial

5.5 Expanded availability of consumer credit

5.6 Commercial sector

5.7 Improve efficiency of financial system

5.8 Create tradable securities out of financial claims

5.9 Disperse holding of financial assets

5.10 Promote savings

5.11 Reduce costs

5.12 Diversify risks

5.13 Focus on use of resources, not their ownership

5.14 Asset-liability matching

5.15 Obtain greater funding than via unsecured financing sources

5.16 Interest rate management (match-funding assets and liabilities)

5.17 Tool of risk management

5.18 Promotes industry competition by lowering barriers to entry

5.19 Chapter conclusion

5.19.1 Benefits for Issuers

5.19.2 Benefits for investors

5.19.3 Benefits for consumers

5.19.4 Benefits for originators

6. Drawbacks of securitisation

6.1 Obscuring the balance sheet

6.1.1 Shrinking the balance sheet

6.1.2 Improving company leverage ratio

6.1.3 Affect risk profile by substituting investments in receivables with investments in subordinated interests

6.1.4 Creates a gain-on-sale credited to equity

6.1.4.1 Gain on sale can be written down

6.1.4.2 Gain on sale compromises the annuity earnings stream

6.2 Taxpayers bear brunt of bank securitisation failures

6.3 Project stronger earnings - obscures profit and loss statement

6.4 Over-complicates company's financial structure

6.5 Bankruptcy immunity

6.5.1 LTV Steel

6.6 Dependence on securitisation increases risk

6.7 Funding aggressive growth and the associative risks

6.7.1 Omission to expand servicing capacity

6.7.2 Relaxing credit standards and/or pricing

6.7.3 Personnel issues

6.7.4 Fixed expansion costs and the consequences when origination volume slows or declines

6.7.5 Meeting the Exchange's estimates to support lofty stock multiples

6.8 Chapter conclusion

7. Mortgage-back securitisation (MBS)

7.1 What is MBS?

7.2 Who issues mortgage securities?

7.3 What is the history of the market?

7.4 Mortgage securities vs other fixed income investments

7.5 What types are available?

7.5.1 Pass-throughs or Participation Certificates (PCs)

7.5.2 CMOs or REMICs

7.5.3 Planned amortisation class(PAC) and targeted amortisation class (TAC)

7.5.4 Floating rate CMO tranches ("floaters")

7.5.5 Strips

7.5.6 Callable pass-throughs

7.5.6.1 Callable class

7.5.6.2 Callable pass-throughs in CMOs

7.6 How safe are mortgage securities?

7.7 Is the market liquid and accessible?

7.8 What market risks are involved?

7.9 What are the minimum investments and costs, and who invests?

Table 1. Comparison of CMO/REMIC securitisation

Table 2. Comparison of pass-through and mortgage securitisations

7.9.1 Investments

7.9.2 Costs

7.9.3 Who invests?

7.9.3.1 The tax status of mortgage securities

7.10 Chapter conclusion

8. Asset-backed securitisation (ABS)

8.1 What is asset-backed securitisation?

8.2 The process of ABS

8.3 History of ABS

8.4 Types of assets that back securities

8.5 Classifying securitised assets

8.5.1 Home-equity loans

Chart 1. Home equity loans - proportion of ABS market in 2003

8.5.1.2 Open-end home equity lines of credit (HELOCS)

8.5.2 Credit cards

Chart 2. Credit cards - proportion of ABS market in 2003

8.5.3 Auto loans

Chart 3. Auto loans - proportion of ABS market in 2003

8.5.4 Manufactured-housing contracts

Chart 4. Manufactured housing contracts - proportion of ABS market in 2003

8.5.5 Student loans

Chart 5. Student loans - proportion of ABS market in 2003

8.5.6 Equipment leases

Chart 6. Equipment leases - proportion of ABS market in 2003

8.5.7 Boat and recreational vehicle (RV) loans

Chart 7. Boat and recreational vehicle (RV) loans

8.5.8 Other assets

8.5.8.1 Royalties

8.5.8.2 Utility-stranded costs

8.6 Benefits of investing in ABS

8.6.1 Attractive yields

8.6.2 High credit quality

8.6.3 Diversity and investment diversification

8.6.4 Predictable cash flow

8.6.5 Reduced event risk

8.6.6 Interest rates and yields on ABS

8.6.6.1 Yield

8.6.6.2 Average life

8.6.6.3 Total return

8.7 Credit quality and credit enhancement

8.7.1 Credit ratings

8.7.2 SPV and the rating

8.7.3 Credit enhancement

8.7.3.1 Internal credit enhancement

8.7.3.1.1 Subordination

8.7.3.1.2 Over collateralisation

8.7.4 Yield spread (excess servicing)

8.7.5 Turboing

8.7.6 Excess spread

8.7.7 Reserve fund

8.7.8 External credit enhancement

8.7.9 Surety bonds

8.7.10 Third party or parental guarantees

8.7.11 Letter of credit

8.7.12 Cash Collateral Account (CCA)

8.7.13 Collateral Invested Amount (CIA)

8.8 How are ABS structured?

8.8.1 Fully amortising

8.8.2 Controlled amortisation

8.8.3 Soft/Hard Bullet

8.8.4 Floaters

8.8.5 Sequential pay

8.9 Prepayment models

8.9.1 Constant prepayment rate (CPR)

8.9.2 Monthly payment rate (MPR)

8.9.3 Absolute Prepayment Speed (ABS)

8.9.4 Home Equity Prepayment Curve (HEP)

8.9.5 Prospectus Prepayment Curve (PPC)

8.9.6 Manufactured-Housing Prepayment Curve (MHP)

8.10 Asset-backed vs other fixed income securities

8.11 Market risks

8.11.1 Interest rate risk

8.11.2 Default risk

8.12 Tax status of ABS

8.12.1 Foreign withholding

8.12.2 Legal investment status

8.13 Chapter conclusion

9. Worldwide securitisation

9.1 Introduction

9.2 US securitisation trends

9.2.1 Mortgage-backed securities

9.2.1.1 Issuance of agency MBS

Table 2. Issuance of agency MBS - 1980 to 2003 ($ bills)

Chart 8. Issuance of agency MBS - 1980 to 2003 ($ bills)

9.2.1.1.1 Visiongain analysis

9.2.1.2 Outstanding volume of agency mortgage-backed securities

Table 3. Outstanding volume of agency MBS - 1980 to 2003 ($ bills)

Chart 9. Outstanding volume of agency MBS - 1980 to 2003 ($ bills)

9.2.1.2.1 Visiongain analysis

9.2.1.3 Agency Collateralised Mortgage Obligations (CMOs)

Table 4. Issuance of agency CMOs (MBS) - 1987 to 2003 ($ bills)

Chart 10. Issuance of agency CMOs (MBS) - 1987 to 2003 ($ bills)

9.2.1.3.1 Visiongain analysis

Diagram 2. Example of a plain vanilla CMO

9.2.1.4 Outstanding volumes of agency CMOs

Table 5. Outstanding volumes of agency CMOs - 1987 to 2003 ($bills)

Chart 11. Outstanding volumes of agency CMOs - 1987 to 2003 ($bills)

9.2.1.4.1 Visiongain analysis

9.2.1.5 Average daily trading volume of agency MBS

Table 6. Average daily volume of agency MBS - 1991 to 2003 ($ mills)

Chart 12. Average daily volume of agency MBS - 1991 to 2003 ($ mills)

9.2.1.5.1 Visiongain analysis

9.2.1.6 Outstanding mortgage debt

9.2.1.6.1 Outstanding mortgage debt according to type of mortgage

Table 7. Outstanding mortgage debt according to type of mortgage - from 1991 to 2003 ($mills)

Chart 13. Outstanding mortgage debt according to type of mortgage - from 1991 to 2003 ($mills)

9.2.1.6.2 Outstanding mortgage debt according to holder

Table 7. Outstanding mortgage debt according to holder - from 1994 to 2003 ($mills)

Chart 13. Outstanding mortgage debt according to holder - from 1994 to 2003 ($mills)

9.2.1.6.3 Visiongain analysis

9.2.2 Asset-backed securities

Table 9. ABS outstanding according to types of credit - from 1995 to 2003 ($ mills)

Chart 15. ABS outstanding according to types of credit - from 1995 to 2003 ($ mills)

9.2.2.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3 European securitisation issuance

Chart 16. European securitisation issuance 2000:Q1 to 2003:Q3

Chart 17. European securitisation issuance per annum

9.3.1 European ABS/MBS spreads to Euribor

Chart 18. European ABS/MBS spreads to Euribor

9.3.2 Mortgage-backed securities (MBS)

Chart 19. Europeam issuance according to collateral type

9.3.2.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.2.1.1 Residential mortgage-backed securities

9.3.2.1.2 Commercial mortgage-backed securities

9.3.3 Asset-backed securities (ABS)

Chart 20. European ABS issuance according to collateral type

9.3.3.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.3.1.1 CDO collateral - deconstructed

9.3.3.1.2 Receivable collateral - deconstructed

9.3.3.1.3 Credit card collateral - deconstructed

9.3.3.1.4 Consumer and auto loan collateral - deconstructed

9.3.3.1.5 Other

9.3.4 Regional trends

Table 10. European securitisation by country of collateral

Chart 21. European securitisation by country of collateral by Q3 in 2003

Chart 22. European securitisation by country of collateral by Q3 in 2002

9.3.4.1 MBS in Europe

9.3.4.1.1 MBS in Europe in 2003

Chart 23. MBS by country of collateral by Q2 in 2003

9.3.4.1.2 MBS in Europe in 2002

Chart 24. MBS by country of collateral by Q2 in 2002

9.3.4.1.3 RMBS in Europe

Chart 25: RMBS transactions in Europe

9.3.4.1.3.1 RMBS dominating overall EMEA market

Chart 26: EMEA total securitisation market in 2003: Percentage share of €268 billion risk transfer

9.3.4.1.3.2 Country securitisation risk transfer

Chart 27: Country securitisation risk transfer volume in 2003

Chart 28: RMBS as a percentage of country risk securitisation risk transfer volume in 2003

9.3.4.1.3.3 European RMBS issuance in € billions

Table 11: European RMBS issuance in € billions

Chart 29: Country split by number of RMBS transactions in 2003

Chart 30: Country split by RMBS securitisation risk transfer volume in 2003

9.3.4.1.3.4 Country highlights

9.3.4.1.3.4.1 UK - RMBS trends

Chart 31: RMBS transactions in the UK

Table 12: Breakdown of UK Prime and non-conforming RMBS transactions

9.3.4.1.3.4.1.1 Trends in the UK Prime sector

9.3.4.1.3.4.1.2 Trends in the UK Non-conforming sector

Table 13: UK - RMBS rating actions in 2003

Table 14: UK - List of UK RMBS transactions closed in 2003

Chart 32: UK - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators within 2003

Chart 33: UK - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.2 Netherlands - RMBS trends

Chart 34: RMBS transactions in the Netherlands

Table 15: Netherlands - List of UK RMBS transactions closed in 2003

Chart 35: Netherlands - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003

Chart 36: Netherlands - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.3 Spain - RMBS trends

Chart 37: RMBS transactions in Spain (in mills)

Table 16: Spain - RMBS rating actions in 2003

Table 17: Spain- List of UK RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 38: Spain - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003

Chart 39: Spain - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.4 Italy - RMBS trends

Chart 40: RMBS transactions in Italy (in bills)

Table 17: Italy- List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 41: Italy - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003

Chart 42: Italy - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.5 Germany - RMBS trends

Chart 43: RMBS transactions in Germany (in bills)

Table 18: Germany - RMBS rating actions in 2003

Table 19: Germany- List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 44: Germany - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 45: Germany - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.6 Portugal - RMBS markets

Chart 46: RMBS transactions in Portugal (in bills)

Table 20: Portugal - List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 47: Portugal - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 48: Portugal - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.7 France - RMBS markets

Chart 49: RMBS transactions in France (in bills)

Table 21: France - List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 50: France - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 51: France - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.8 Switzerland - RMBS markets

Chart 52: RMBS transactions in Switzerland (in bills)

Table 22: Switzerland - List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 53: Switzerland - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 54: Switzerland - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.9 Ireland- RMBS markets

Chart 55: RMBS transactions in Ireland (in bills)

Table 23: Ireland - RMBS rating actions in 2003

Table 24: Ireland - List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 56: Ireland - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003(in € mills)

Chart 57: Ireland - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.10 Belgium - RMBS markets

Table 25: Belgium - List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 58: Belgium - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003(in € mills)

Chart 59: Belgium - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.11 Greece - RMBS markets

Table 26: Greece- List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 60: Greece - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003(in € mills)

Chart 61: Greece - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.12 South Africa - RMBS markets

Table 27: South Africa - List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in €mills)

Chart 62: South Africa - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 63: South Africa - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.1.3.4.13 Sweden - RMBS markets

Chart 65: RMBS transactions in Sweden (in bills)

Table 28: Sweden- List of RMBS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 66: Sweden - Breakdown of leading RMBS originators 2003(in € mills)

Chart 67: Sweden - Leading RMBS deals in 2003 (in € mills)

9.3.4.2 ABS in Europe

Chart 68: ABS by country of collateral by Q2 in 2003

Chart 69: ABS by country of collateral by Q2 in 2002

Chart 70: EMEA ABS transactions 1999-2003

Chart 71: EMEA ABS transactions 1999-2003 - Issuance volume by domicile of assets

Chart 72: EMEA ABS transactions 2003- Issuance volume by asset class

Chart 73: EMEA ABS transactions 1999-2003 - Issuance volume by asset class

9.3.4.2.1 Country highlights

9.3.4.2.1.1 UK - ABS trends

Table 29: UK - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 74: UK - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer (in € mills)

9.3.4.2.1.1.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.4.2.1.2 Italy - ABS trends

Table 30: Italy - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 75: Italy - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer (in € mills)

Chart 76: Italy - Consolidated ABS transactions according to asset class

9.3.4.2.1.2.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.4.2.1.3 France - ABS trends

Table 31: France - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 77: France - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer

(in € mills)

Chart 78: France - Consolidated ABS transactions according to asset class

9.3.4.2.1.4 Germany - ABS trends

Table 32: Germany - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 79: Germany - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer

(in € mills)

Chart 80: Germany - Consolidated ABS transactions according to asset class

9.3.4.2.1.5 South Africa - ABS trends

Table 33: South Africa - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 81: South Africa - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer

(in € mills)

Chart 82: South Africa - Consolidated ABS transactions according to assets

9.3.4.2.1.5.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.4.2.1.6 Portugal - ABS trends

Table 34: Portugal - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 83: Portugal - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer

(in € mills)

Chart 84: Portugal - Consolidated ABS transactions according to assets

9.3.4.2.1.6.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.4.2.1.7 Netherlands - ABS trends

Table 35: Netherlands - List of ABS transactions closed in 2003 (in € mills)

Chart 85: Netherlands - Consolidated ABS transactions according to issuer

(in € mills)

Chart 86: Netherlands - Consolidated ABS transactions according assets

9.3.4.2.1.7.1 Visiongain analysis

9.3.4.3 EMEA securitisation consolidated

9.3.4.3.1 UK securitisation compounded - visiongain analysis

9.3.4.1.2 Italian securitisation compounded- visiongain analysis

9.3.5 Pfandbriefe

9.3.5.1 German securitisation compounded - visiongain analysis

9.3.5.2 Spanish securitisation compounded - visiongain analysis

9.3.5.3 French securitisation compounded - visiongain analysis

9.3.5.4 Austrian securitisation compounded - visiongain analysis

9.3.5.5 Other

9.4 European outlook

9.4.1 Introduction

9.4.2 Sector outlook

9.4.2.1 Outlook for RMBS

9.4.2.2 Outlook for CMBS

9.4.2.3 Outlook for CDO issuance

9.4.2.4 Outlook for auto ABS

9.4.2.5 Outlook for credit card sector

9.4.2.5 Outlook for non-performing loans (NPLs)

9.4.2.6 Outlook for business securitisation

9.4.3 Country of collateral

9.4.3.1 Outlook for UK

9.4.3.2 Outlook for Italy

9.4.3.3 Outlook for Spain

9.4.3.4 Outlook for Portugal

9.4.3.5 Outlook for Germany

9.4.3.6 Outlook for France

9.4.3.7 Outlook for Netherlands

9.4.3.8 Outlook for Switzerland

9.4.3.9 Outlook for Ireland

9.4.3.10 Outlook for Greece

9.4.3.11 Outlook for Belgium

9.4.3.12 Outlook for Sweden

9.4.4 Liquidity and demand

9.4.5 Risks

9.5 Chapter conclusion

10. Conclusion

10.1 Dispelling the myths

10.2 The changing landscape of securitisation

10.2.1 Blurring demarcation between structured and corporate finance

10.2.2 Changing legal and regulatory environment

10.2.3 Evolving techniques for measuring and managing credit risk

10.2.4 Portfolio re-balancing strategies

10.2.5 Improving financial ratios

10.2.6 Improving profitability

10.2.7 Providing capital relief

10.2.8 Hybrid solution

10.2.9 Adverse trends - increase in ratings downgrades

10.3 Going forward

10.4 Taking the plunge

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